WINDSORCASTLE.INFO • PREMIER LEAGUE 2026/27 • WEEKEND PREVIEW
Can the favourites deliver — or is an upset waiting?
The Premier League returns with a packed programme on 7–8 November 2026. Arsenal have the clearest estimated advantage at home to Hull City, while Manchester City and Liverpool are favoured away from home. Yet the City and Liverpool fixtures both carry a substantial draw or defeat risk.
About these probabilities: the percentages below are market-derived estimates, reported by OddsForge on 5 November 2026. They are not guarantees and may change with line-ups, injuries and odds movements.
Weekend fixtures and estimated outcomes
| Fixture | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton v Coventry City | 55.6% | 24.1% | 20.3% |
| Leeds United v Tottenham | 36.8% | 28.0% | 35.2% |
| Arsenal v Hull City | 82.0% | 12.2% | 5.7% |
| Fulham v Newcastle | 46.0% | 26.1% | 27.9% |
| Nottingham Forest v Manchester City | 21.3% | 23.7% | 54.9% |
| Brighton v Brentford | 49.1% | 24.8% | 26.1% |
| Crystal Palace v Liverpool | 19.0% | 22.4% | 58.6% |
| Ipswich Town v Bournemouth | 25.8% | 25.5% | 48.7% |
| Sunderland v Chelsea | 26.5% | 26.6% | 47.0% |
| Manchester United v Aston Villa | 43.5% | 25.7% | 30.7% |
Source: OddsForge Premier League odds and margin-free probabilities, checked 5 November 2026. Fixture reference: official Premier League fixture list. Figures are rounded.
Three matches to watch
Arsenal v Hull City
Arsenal have an estimated 82% chance of winning, making them the strongest favourite in this trio. Hull’s estimated win chance is just 5.7%, but a red card, wasted chances or a successful defensive plan can change any match. Favourite does not mean certain.
Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
City are estimated at 54.9% to win away, with Forest at 21.3% and the draw at 23.7%. This is the accumulator’s most vulnerable leg: Forest’s home advantage, counter-attacks and set pieces could trouble the visitors.
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Liverpool have an estimated 58.6% chance of winning, but the draw is 22.4% and a Palace win 19%. Palace could frustrate the visitors with compact defending and exploit any space on the counter.
The three-match accumulator idea
- Arsenal to beat Hull City — estimated win chance 82.0%.
- Manchester City to beat Nottingham Forest — estimated win chance 54.9%.
- Liverpool to beat Crystal Palace — estimated win chance 58.6%.
Multiplying the three estimates gives an approximate 26.4% chance of all three winning, assuming the match outcomes are independent. That is roughly one chance in four. The chance of at least one selection failing is therefore about 73.6%. This is a mathematical illustration, not a promise of returns or a recommendation to stake money.
The opposite scenario: all three favourites fail
A straight-win accumulator loses if a selection draws as well as if it loses. The estimated chances of each favourite failing to win are approximately 18.0% for Arsenal, 45.1% for Manchester City and 41.4% for Liverpool.
Multiplying these gives roughly a 3.4% chance of all three favourites failing to win, assuming independence and allowing for rounding. This scenario can include draws; it does not require all three underdogs to win outright.
If Hull, Forest and Palace all won outright, the simple combined estimate would be about 0.23%, around 1 in 433. That would be a major upset. The more plausible way for the accumulator to fail is a draw or a single surprise result.
How could the upsets happen?
Hull against Arsenal: disciplined defending, set-piece success and Arsenal missing chances would be needed for a shock. Forest against City: home energy, quick transitions and forcing errors could give Forest a route into the match. Palace against Liverpool: Palace would need to defend their box well and take their chances. A draw is more plausible than a Palace win, but either would defeat a Liverpool straight-win pick.
Other potential stumbling blocks
Leeds v Tottenham is close in the estimates, so neither side looks like a safe straight-win selection. Fulham v Newcastle could be tight, while Manchester United v Aston Villa has a meaningful away-win possibility. Brighton are favoured over Brentford, but their estimated 49.1% home-win chance still leaves plenty of room for another outcome.
Our weekend verdict
Arsenal are the standout favourite, while Manchester City and Liverpool are plausible winners with more risk attached to their away fixtures. Leeds v Tottenham, Fulham v Newcastle and Manchester United v Aston Villa deserve particular caution. The strongest preview considers both the likely result and the credible ways it could go wrong.
Responsible gambling: This article is for sports discussion and probability illustration only. No accumulator is a safe bet. If you choose to gamble, set a strict limit and never chase losses.
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Category hierarchy: Football → Premier League 26/27. Existing category counts checked during preparation: Premier League 26/27 (8 posts). Tag cloud: Premier League (2), Premier League 26/27 (6). Counts may change when published.
Sources and image credits
- Premier League — official fixture list
- OddsForge — Premier League probabilities
- Match action: Emilio Garcia on Unsplash.
- Supporters: Emerson Vieira on Unsplash.
- Pitch: Jon Matthews on Unsplash.
Editorial note: probabilities are time-sensitive snapshots. Verify fixtures, kick-off times, line-ups and odds close to kick-off.
